India’s national Census, usually conducted every ten years without fail since 1881, has now been delayed for more than five years. Originally due in 2021, it’s now expected only in 2026 — a worrying gap that could seriously hurt how we plan and deliver policies.
The Census isn’t just about counting people. It’s a detailed, reliable record of where and how Indians live — vital for planning public services like housing, health care, education, and infrastructure. It’s the backbone of how government funds are shared and how welfare is targeted. Without it, we’re relying on old data to make new decisions — and that’s a big problem.
Think of how much has changed since 2011, the last time India conducted its Census. Digital payments are everywhere. Gig work and delivery apps have exploded. Millions have moved to cities. And yet, our policies are based on numbers from a time when many of these changes hadn’t even begun. For example, 2011 data says about 32% of Indians live in cities — but current estimates suggest it could now be over 50%. Without accurate data, how can we design cities or invest in clean water, transport, and housing?
While the government says COVID-19 caused the delay, a five-year gap is unprecedented. Past Censuses were held during wars and crises — why not this time?
Meanwhile, the decision to include caste data in the next Census is a major shift for the current government, which had earlier opposed it. While this could help improve affirmative action policies, it also raises political tensions and must be handled carefully. The Constitution clearly says reservations should be based on under-representation, not just population numbers.
The lack of a current Census means many government programs — like Smart Cities or Swachh Bharat — can’t be properly assessed. Private research tries to fill the gap, but it’s based on samples, not a full picture. That makes policymaking less reliable.
In short, this delay isn’t just a missed exercise. It’s a serious risk for economic planning and governance. If the next Census finally happens in 2026, it will have to catch up on a decade of dramatic change.
-Team CFA