Nobody anticipated a massive victory with 85% seats for the ruling alliance, which faced 20 years of anti-incumbency, anger due to unemployment, massive poverty, low income levels, the highest out-migration, and low-quality education.
āThe success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan,ā says a proverb. Now the pro-corporate, subservient media is bringing out stories behind the victory, but nobody has touched on the role the banks have played in the election results.
In my assessment, the victory is due to many factors. Number one is the role of the ECI. Deleting 70 lakh voters (ECI has to clarify how many are dead, how many are foreigners, and how many have left Bihar); addition of 20 lakh voters, out of which 3 lakh were added after the final voters list was published and details of them are not available; use of 1,80,000 Jeevika Didis (SHG leaders) in the SIR process and in mobilising voters to the booth; permitting distribution of Rs. 10,000/- each to 1 crore 50 lakh families after the election dates were announced, WHICH IS A VIOLATION OF THE MODEL CODE OF CONDUCT; surge in vote percentage after 6 PM and after one day; non-publication of booth-wise number of votes polled and number of votes counted. All these have contributed to the NDA victory.
But one thing no one has noticed or analysed is the contribution of banks. Letās analyse the data.
As per the 2011 Census, the population of Bihar was 10,40,99,542 (second largest State by population). The projected population is 13.10 croreā6.80 crore male and 6.30 crore female. 88% rural and 12% urban. As per the 2011 Census, there were 1.89 crore households, and now the projected households are 2.76 crore.
As per MUDRA loan data, banks in Bihar disbursed 96,31,277 (almost 1 crore) MUDRA loans to the tune of Rs. 58,722 crore in 2023ā24 alone. This was 14% of the loans disbursed in the country that year, though the population is only 9% of the country. Uttar Pradesh, which has 24.63 crore population (more than double that of Bihar), disbursed only 76,79,518 MUDRA loans that year. (Keep in mind that the next UP elections will be only in 2027. So there is time to disburse more loans.)
The government does not provide year-wise state-wise data on MUDRA Loans. The latest state-wise data is available only for 2023ā24.
If we project the figures for 5 years, Bihar must have received approximately 4.81 crore MUDRA loans amounting to Rs. 2,93,610 crore. So, on average, every household has received 1.75 or say 2 loans, and the average amount is Rs. 61,000.
This has definitely contributed to the election victory. Leaving the 2% who have jobs in the government & public sector, out of 2.76 crore households, 2.21 crore households would have received 2 MUDRA loans each in this period. They were told that this was given by Modiji. This was conveyed through the Jeevika Didis to 1.35 crore SHG women, and they spread the message in their area.
In 2024ā25 alone, 2.13 lakh financial literacy campaigns were organised by banks where the Livelihood Project staff were also used.
The bumper prize is through the World Bankāsupported Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana. This was announced along with the ongoing Bihar Rural Livelihood Project (BRLP), known as Jeevika. The first phase was from 2006ā2016. The scheme continues till date. Thatās why Prashant Kishor had said Rs. 14,000 crore World Bank money was distributed.
The scheme is similar to Kudumbashree in Kerala and Mahalir Thittam in Tamil Nadu. In fact, the master trainers undergo training in Tamil Nadu in the first phase of their training. But it was coordinated well for a political purpose. Hundreds of postgraduates are appointed to coordinate, train, and be politically used as campaign managers subtly.
Now, under the Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, it was announced that 3 crore families will be given a loan of Rs. 10,000 each first, and later a loan of Rs. 2 lakhs will be given and they will be made Lakhpatis through the Jeevika Didis. When approximately 1.5 crore families received Rs. 10,000 in their accounts, they thought it was free though the scheme shows it as a loan. Now banks will be pressurised to give loans which may not come backābut who cares? Election results are good. Out of 2.76 crore families in Bihar, if 3 crore families are given loans, who will not be happy?
Remember what happened with the Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana scheme in Maharashtra after the election victory?
In addition to the above, under the Kisan Credit Card Scheme, 73.88 lakh farmers were given loans as of March 2024. During 2025, 38 lakh KCCs were issued, though the NPA in KCC in Bihar is 38%. The reach is more than 1.2 crore families.
The Student KCC Scheme was launched with Rs. 4 lakh credit for higher studies after Plus Two.
4,581 goat farms, 6,000 broiler farms, and 900 layer farms were financed, and this sector created 12 lakh employment as per the Secretary to the Government.
Under the PM SVANidhi Scheme, up to 2024, 1,59,178 loans were given, but in 2025 another 1,62,952 loans were given from Rs. 15,000 to Rs. 25,000, with a promise of Rs. 50,000 in the next instalment of credit.
NABARD provided Rs. 48,200 crore in 4 years for Rural Infrastructure Development.
The National Makhana Board launched projects to the tune of Rs. 31,000 crore.
For the 2.76 crore families, banks have opened 6.24 crore Jan Dhan accounts.
How was all this done? While in other states the Finance Minister attends the State Level Bankers Committee meeting, which is held quarterly, in Bihar the SLBC meetings were attended occasionally by Mr. Samrat Choudhury, Dy. CM; Dr. Prem Kumar, Minister for Co-operation; Ms. Renu Devi, Minister for Animal Husbandry and Fisheries; Mr. Shravan Kumar, Minister for Rural Development; and Mr. Jibesh Kumar, Minister for Urban Development and Housing Development, along with their secretaries.
They meticulously followed up loan applications and targets. Though the NPA overall is 7.72% and in KCC 38%, banks were forced to give further loans. RBI Regional Directors, CGM NABARD, CGM SBI and other senior officials of banks were there.
Though this was not the only factor for the election victory, it definitely is one of the reasons.
The political parties have to analyse this too. In spite of the 20-Point Economic Programme and Integrated Rural Development Programme, Mrs. Indira Gandhi lost the elections.
The Jeevika Didis will turn against the government when their hopes are shattered.
To save democracy, you have to understand the pulse at the grassroots. But with this ECI there will be no real democracy. (For more on this, refer to my earlier article.)
Thomas Franco is the former General Secretary of All India Bank Officersā Confederation and a Steering Committee Member at the Global Labour University.
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