India’s Fossil Delusion and Just Transition Opportunity

It is more than 45 days into the direct and major US-Iran war. Since then, the global oil prices have skyrocketed to about $140 a barrel, commercial LPG prices have risen by ₹195.5 and India’s strategic crude reserves provide barely 20 to 40 days of cover.

According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, in India, the crude price has risen from $ 69.01/bbl in February 2026 (Pre-war) to $ 123.24/bbl in April 2026. Every dollar increase in crude price has cascading effects on every sector and every household.

News headlines everyday scream about the impact: costs of products from toys to syringes, MRIs and ventilators and from fertilizers to family planning products such as condoms are soaring high. The government is firefighting: diversifying imports to Africa and Russia, abolishing import taxes on 40 petrochemical products, and even re-promoting coal gasification.

Debunking the Strait of Hormuz’s Relevance

Geographically, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman and contains eight major islands, of which seven are controlled by Iran. The Strait is the only connecting channel between the oil-rich gulf states and the Indian Ocean. Strategically, it is one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints^[1].

Every single day, nearly 17 million barrels (bbl) or 20% – 30% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This also accounts for 88% of the entire oil exiting from the gulf states in the Persian Gulf.

India imports over 88% of its crude oil – a full‑year record. We use about 5.5 million barrels every day. Of that, roughly 1.5 to 2 million barrels pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, India imports 60% of its LPG requirements and 90% of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, control over the traffic flow through the Strait has an exponential impact on the world, with no exception for India.

The Real Vulnerability – Petrochemicals:

The prices at the petrol pumps do not reflect the real situation. Despite the increase in crude oil prices, the petrol, diesel and LPG prices appear to be stable. The situation might change following the 5 state assembly elections (4 states — Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal; and 1 Union Territory — Puducherry).

However, the deeper vulnerability runs through petrochemicals. Our plastics, fibres, solvents and fertilisers are almost entirely dependent on imported naphtha, natural gas and aromatic feedstocks from West Asia. That is the reason why we are witnessing the price rise in various everyday products. The downstream industries in this sector have lakhs of workers employed. A small impact upstream will have a cascading effect on all these industries. Thus, this is not just an energy crisis, but it is a civilisational supply chain crisis.

Fragile Fossil Detour

The government’s response to this crisis includes abolishing import taxes on petrochemicals, promoting coal gasification to make more petrochemicals from more coal, and celebrating record coal production of 210 million tonnes for FY 2025-26. This is not energy security. It is a fossil self‑delusion.

Coal gasification is not a transition. It is a detour into a deeper fossil trap which is carbon‑intensive, water‑intensive and economically inefficient. It locks India into decades more plastic production when we already cannot manage the plastic waste we have and are generating. Our rivers, soils and marine ecosystems are choking from the plastic crisis. The petrochemical industry’s current feedstock fragility is not a reason to make more petrochemicals at home. Instead, it must be a reason to reduce our dependence on petrochemicals altogether. Just Transition: Now or Never

The fastest way to reduce import dependence is to reduce the need for petrochemicals in the first place.

First, aggressive caps on single‑use plastics. Not just a ban on straws and cutlery – a national cap on virgin plastic production, falling year on year. Tax petrochemical companies for every tonne of new plastic. Use the revenue to scale up refill infrastructure, compostable alternatives and local circular economies. Mandate reusable or compostable packaging by 2030. Implementing these might look challenging because of the powerful petrochemical lobby, but the West Asia crisis has handed us a reason to act now. Every tonne of plastic we don’t make saves barrels of oil and cuts our import bill.

Second, gradually shift subsidies from chemical agriculture to agroecological farming. Today, our agricultural model is fossil‑based: urea from natural gas, pesticides from oil, diesel for tractors and pumps. India relies heavily on imported fertilisers linked to the Gulf. A prolonged conflict will raise subsidy costs, worsen farm input prices and drive food inflation.

The farmer pays at both ends – first for expensive inputs, then through income that does not keep pace. Redirecting fertiliser subsidies toward natural farming, on‑farm composting and decentralised renewable energy for irrigation can reduce fossil input dependence significantly while improving soil health and farmer incomes.

Conclusion

The Gulf crisis is not a passing storm. It is a permanent feature of a geopolitically fragile, fractured, fossil‑driven world. We can respond by digging more coal, building more gasifiers and making more plastic – doubling down on a 19th‑century model. Or we can recognise that energy self‑reliance does not mean producing more fossil fuels at home. It means needing less of them.

This means capping single‑use plastics, shifting agriculture away from petrochemicals, and investing in real, democratic just transitions – not coal gasification or elite solutions.

As oil prices continue to climb, let us not applaud coal production records or petrochemical tax cuts. Let us ask the hard question: Why are we still subsidising the very vulnerabilities that are strangling us?

^[1] Chokepoints are narrow geographical features such as straits or canals that are strategic for controlling movement of traffic, in this case, sea traffic, especially for oil transport.

This article was originally published in Independent Ink you can read it here.